Sports Handicapper Ron Raymond of the Raymond Report will be releasing 30 Sports Betting Tips each day during the Month of July to get you through those “Dog Days of Summer”.
Welcome to Tip #16 of 30, as Professional Sports Handicapper Ron Raymond talks about the “Perception vs. Reality” when it comes to betting on College Football and warns sports bettors to be careful on betting on what he calls “College Football Fools Gold.
About Professional Sports Handicapper Ron Raymond
Ron Raymond is a veteran sports handicapper going into his 24th season and is recognized as a pioneer in the online sports handicapping industry. In 2009, Ron Raymond wrote a book called “Ron Raymond’s 50 Greatest Sports Betting Secrets” and it is now listed on Amazon. Plus, Ron Raymond is the owner and founder of the World Series of Handicapping© Pro Football Contest going into its 9th season.
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What is the Raymond Reports Sports Betting Tipsheet?
Raymond Report Sports Handicapping Fundamentals:
A) Line/Price Value ($): When calculating the “Value” of a line or price, we look for the margin of error between the bookmaker’s line, the result of a past game and then produce the value of what the line should be in the next game. (Perception vs. Reality = Value)
B) Percentage Play (%): Every time a team wins or covers (Side or Totals), their chances of repeating that same action decreases, based on the law of average theory.
i) Side: (C.O.W – Chance of Winning) & (C.O.C. – Chance of Covering)
ii) Total: (C.O.G.O. – Chance of Going Over)
C) V.I.C. (Value Index Cycle): The intangibles of special circumstances. (Letdown factor, Look ahead, Line-moves, Shelf Scouting, Gut Feeling, etc…)
3 Types of Teams (Value Category)
When you look at League Standings, you have two types of teams: Teams above .500 and Teams below .500. However, we see 3 types of teams in the Raymond Report!
3 Types of Teams in the Standings:
Tier 1 Teams (A): 60% or higher (Above Average Teams = High Public Confidence = Low Rewards)
Tier 2 Teams (B): 50% to 59.9% (Average Teams = Moderate Public Confidence = Medium Rewards)
Tier 3 Teams (C): 49.9% or Lower (Below Average Teams = Low Public Confidence = High Rewards)
*Note: Remember, every time a team wins or loses, it affects their classification ranking and allows for another team to go up or down in the standings. When one team goes up in the standings, there is always one team coming down!
Type of Performance Cycles (Percentage Play)
Every team goes through different performance cycles during a season. Bookmakers will use these situations to manipulate the line and use market confidence to their advantage.
3 Types of Performance Cycles: (Market Confidence Levels)
1. MLB, NHL & NBA CYCLE:
Bullish Cycle =Team is either (7-0, 6-1, or 5-2) Last 7 games.
Neutral Cycle =Team is either (3-4 or 4-3) Last 7 games.
Bearish Cycle =Team is either (0-7, 1-6 or 2-5) Last 7 games.
1. NFL, CFB & CFL CYCLE:
Bullish Cycle =Team is (3-0) Last 3 games.
Neutral Cycle =Team is either (1-2 or 2-3) Last 3 games.
Bearish Cycle =Team is (0-3) Last 3 games.
*Note: Depending on the type of team and their current performance cycle, will affect their percentage play in their next game.
Situational Handicapping (Value. Index. Cycles)
Every team has an “BEFORE” and “AFTER” situational game factor which leads to conditional situations that could work for or against teams.
V.I.C. Examples:
Streaks
Division Play
Letdown Factors
Look Ahead Factors
Late Line-moves
Underdog Roles
Favorite Roles
Injuries
Shelf Scouting
Gut Feeling
Conclusion: To be successful at sports betting, you need to find indicators that leads you to have confidence in your final decision. At the end of the day, the only thing you control is the confidence you have in your research and evaluation system.
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